ETF Savings Plan Calculator

It depends on three factors: savings rate, investment horizon, and return. With EUR 200 monthly, 7% return, and a 20-year horizon, you end up with approximately EUR 104,000 -- from only EUR 48,000 in contributions. The longer the period, the stronger the compound interest effect. Over 30 years, the same example grows to over EUR 243,000. Use our calculator to compute your individual situation.

Broadly diversified equity ETFs (e.g., MSCI World) have historically achieved an average return of 7-8% per year, before costs and inflation. After deducting the TER (typically 0.10-0.50%) and inflation (approx. 2%), a real return of about 4-5% remains. However, there are no guarantees: in individual years, returns can range from -40% to +40%. What matters is the long-term average over at least 10-15 years.

The advance lump sum (Vorabpauschale) is an annual prepaid tax on unrealized ETF gains that has applied in Germany since 2018. It is calculated as: Base return = Fund value at start of year x base interest rate (2025: 2.29%) x 0.7. The advance lump sum is capped at the actual gain for the year. The partial exemption (30% for equity funds) is deducted, then the tax-free allowance (EUR 1,000 / EUR 2,000). Capital gains tax of 25% plus solidarity surcharge applies to the remaining amount.

Partial tax exemption exempts a portion of ETF returns from taxation: 30% for equity funds (at least 51% stock share), 15% for mixed funds (25-50% stock share), 0% for other funds. An equity fund ETF with EUR 1,000 in gains is thus taxed on only EUR 700. At 25% capital gains tax plus 5.5% solidarity surcharge, this results in an effective tax burden of approximately 18.5% instead of 26.4%. The partial exemption applies both to the advance lump sum and upon sale.

It depends on the ratio between withdrawal rate and return. With EUR 200,000 capital, EUR 1,000 monthly withdrawal, and 4% return (after TER), the wealth lasts approximately 25 years. The classic 4% rule states: If you withdraw a maximum of 4% of your capital annually, you can maintain your wealth with high probability over 30 years. Important: Inflation increases withdrawal needs over time -- our calculator accounts for this.

Compound interest means your gains themselves generate gains. At 7% return, your capital roughly doubles every 10 years. But the effect accelerates: in the first 10 years, EUR 200/month grows to about EUR 35,000. In the second 10 years, another EUR 69,000 is added -- even though you contribute the same amount. After 30 years, the total is EUR 243,000, of which EUR 171,000 is pure capital gains. This shows: time is the most important factor in investing.

The TER (Total Expense Ratio) is deducted annually from fund assets and acts as a return killer through the compound interest effect. With EUR 200/month over 30 years: At 0.2% TER, you reach approximately EUR 234,000, but at 0.5% TER only about EUR 222,000 -- a difference of EUR 12,000. At 1.5% TER (typical for active funds), the result drops to about EUR 190,000. This is why financial experts recommend low-cost index ETFs with a TER below 0.3%.

Statistically, a lump sum investment achieves higher returns because the money works in the market longer (in about 66% of cases, lump sum beats regular investing). But: a monthly savings plan offers the cost-averaging effect -- you buy more shares when prices are low and fewer when high. For most investors, the savings plan is the better choice because: a) most people don't have large capital for a lump sum, b) a savings plan is psychologically easier to maintain, c) timing risk is reduced.

ETF gains in Germany are subject to capital gains tax: 25% Abgeltungssteuer plus 5.5% solidarity surcharge (effectively 26.375%). With church tax obligation, the capital gains tax is slightly reduced (formula: 25% / (1 + church tax rate)), but church tax is added on top. Tax-free allowance: EUR 1,000 per person (EUR 2,000 for married couples). Important: The partial exemption reduces taxable returns (30% for equity funds). Additionally, the annual advance lump sum tax (Vorabpauschale) is levied on unrealized gains.

The most well-known rule of thumb is the 4% rule from the Trinity Study (1998): If you withdraw a maximum of 4% of your initial portfolio value (inflation-adjusted) annually, historically you would have had capital remaining after 30 years in 95% of cases. For a portfolio of EUR 500,000, that would be EUR 20,000 per year or EUR 1,667 monthly. However: the study is based on US data. For Europe, many experts recommend a more conservative rate of 3-3.5%. Our calculator shows you exactly how long your capital lasts at different withdrawal rates.